Gold Rebounds Sharply but Posts Fourth Consecutive Weekly Loss as Iran War Drives Market Volatility

Precious metals regain footing Friday, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps broader risk appetite suppressed

Gold futures staged a strong recovery Friday, with front-month April contracts climbing 2.7% to $4,492 a troy ounce — reversing Thursday's selloff that had been fueled by a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields. Despite the single-session bounce, gold could not escape a weekly loss, settling down 1.7% for the period. The decline marks the fourth consecutive negative week for the metal, its longest weekly losing streak since 2023.

Silver mirrored gold's intraday strength, rising 2.8% to $69.545 a troy ounce. Unlike gold, silver managed to eke out a marginal weekly gain of 0.3%.

"Precious metals have caught a bid," noted Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates. The determining factor for the longer-term trend in gold, however, remains the duration and intensity of the conflict with Iran — specifically how long the disruption to regional shipping lanes persists.

Iran War Uncertainty Dominates Global Markets

The backdrop driving precious metals and roiling broader financial markets is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, now centered on Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the critical waterway through which approximately 20% of global energy typically flows.

Global stock markets declined again Friday after President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, a move that failed to calm either oil markets or government bond yields. Trump had previously warned that Iran would face strikes on its energy infrastructure if the deadline passed without compliance. The extension came just hours after Wall Street suffered its largest single-session drop since the war began on Thursday.

Iran showed no signs of backing down. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated its intention to disrupt regional shipping, and an Iranian official dismissed a U.S. proposal to end the conflict as "one-sided and unfair." A Wall Street Journal report that Trump was considering deploying additional ground troops added to investor concern that the war could escalate beyond air and naval operations.

"Words alone aren't cutting it right now," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "President Trump's extension of the pause on Iran energy strikes failed to lift the mood in any meaningful way. Tangible evidence of progress is what's needed."

Equities Under Pressure

U.S. equity futures gave up earlier gains Friday, with S&P 500 contracts last trading down 0.5% following Thursday's 1.7% plunge. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.4% Thursday, leaving the index down nearly 11% from its record-high close in late October. European and Asian equities fared worse than their U.S. counterparts.

Bond Yields Surge on Inflation Fears

Government bond markets continued to reprice the interest rate outlook aggressively. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points Friday to 4.468% — its highest level since July — extending sharp gains from the prior session. Germany's 10-year bund yield climbed to 3.13%, a level not seen since 2011.

The repricing reflects a dramatic shift in Fed expectations. Money markets now assign roughly a 60% probability to the Federal Reserve raising rates this year — a stark reversal from late February, when traders were pricing in two cuts for 2026. The shift is being driven by fears that an energy supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure could deliver a significant inflationary impulse, potentially forcing central banks to tighten policy rather than ease it.

The U.S. dollar index extended its winning run, posting its fourth consecutive daily gain with a 0.2% advance Friday.

Outlook

With Iran showing no willingness to negotiate on terms acceptable to Washington, and no clear timeline for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, the interplay between energy supply disruption, rising inflation expectations, and surging safe-haven demand will likely continue to define price action across gold, bonds, and equities in the sessions ahead. For gold in particular, the durability of Friday's rebound will depend heavily on whether geopolitical headlines shift from escalation to diplomacy — a transition that, as of Friday's close, appears nowhere in sight.

Wishing you as always, good trading,