Gold Retreats as Fed Chair Uncertainty Weighs on Markets; Silver Tumbles on China Trading Curbs

Gold posted its sharpest decline in over two weeks on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership dampened investor appetite for the precious metal, while silver suffered steep losses following Chinese regulatory intervention in futures markets.

Bullion slipped as much as 1.7% after President Donald Trump expressed reluctance to nominate Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve chair, complicating the administration's search for Jerome Powell's successor. Trump indicated Friday that losing Hassett from his current role as director of the National Economic Council would deprive the administration of one of its most effective economic communicators.

The remarks sent ripples through financial markets. The dollar pared earlier losses while Treasury yields advanced, pressuring non-yielding gold. Swap traders subsequently reduced their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, now pricing in slightly lower odds of two quarter-point reductions.

Gold futures closed at $4,601.10, down $19.40 or 0.42%, after reaching a session high of $4,650.50. The technical picture shows prices trading above both the Ichimoku cloud and the conversion line, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact despite the pullback. The base line near $4,400 provides key support for the recent rally.

Hassett had emerged as a top dovish contender for the Fed position, with market participants expecting him to maintain an accommodative monetary stance. His potential appointment had contributed to gold's extended rally into 2025, driven by both White House pressure on Fed independence and expectations of monetary easing.

Now speculation has intensified that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh represents another leading candidate. Warsh's hawkish reputation on monetary policy presents a stark contrast to Hassett's dovish approach, creating additional uncertainty for markets attempting to price future rate trajectories.

Recent economic data has complicated the outlook further. Following recent inflation and unemployment releases, five regional Federal Reserve bank presidents signaled willingness to pause rate cuts at the upcoming policy meeting. Officials cited a stabilizing labor market and persistent inflation pressures as justification for waiting for additional data before adjusting policy.

This evolving Fed narrative creates a crosscurrent for gold. While ongoing leadership uncertainty and political pressure on central bank independence typically support precious metals, reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts work against non-yielding assets like bullion.

Silver experienced even sharper losses, falling as much as 6% to around $89.95 after Chinese authorities implemented sweeping measures to cool speculation in mainland futures markets. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reduced maximum intraday opening positions for silver futures following exceptional volatility, while regulators ordered exchanges to remove servers operated by high-frequency traders from their data centers.

The regulatory crackdown directly targets the speculative frenzy that had propelled silver to record highs. "While silver has been a hot topic among investors lately on Western social media, it's really speculators in China that have been the main engine," explained Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "We see that through exploding trade volumes in industrial metals and the elevated premium traders there are prepared to pay for silver over London."

Silver's technical indicators show the metal had been trading well above its Ichimoku cloud with strong momentum before the regulatory announcement. The volume profile visible in the chart demonstrates the intense trading activity that prompted Chinese authorities to intervene.

The diverging pressures on precious metals highlight the complexity facing investors. Gold's fundamental drivers remain supportive with geopolitical uncertainty, central bank diversification away from the dollar, and concerns about fiscal sustainability continuing to underpin demand. However, the immediate catalyst of easier monetary policy has weakened as Fed officials adopt a more cautious stance.

For silver, the Chinese regulatory intervention addresses the speculative excess that had disconnected futures prices from underlying physical market dynamics. The premium Chinese traders were willing to pay over London spot prices had signaled unsustainable positioning that regulators deemed necessary to address.

Both metals retain strong technical support levels, with gold's Ichimoku base line near $4,400 and silver's cloud structure suggesting dip-buying interest may emerge. Yet the immediate headwinds from reduced Fed easing expectations and Chinese regulatory tightening could keep near-term pressure on prices.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming Fed communications and any further developments in the central bank leadership search as key drivers for precious metals in coming sessions. The interplay between political pressure for easier policy and Fed officials' data-dependent approach will likely determine whether gold can resume its 2025 rally or faces further consolidation.

Wishing you as always good trading,