Gold Suffers Largest Single-Day Drop Since March as Blowout Jobs Report Slams Rate-Cut Odds

Gold posted its steepest single-session decline since March on Friday, as a far-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report all but extinguished hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut and sent the dollar surging back above a key threshold.

Gold futures shed $148.00, or 3.30%, to settle at $4,353.90 — wiping out a sizable chunk of the metal's recent gains and inflicting significant technical damage and erasing the gains made so far in 2026 in the process.

The catalyst was the Labor Department's closely watched May nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs last month, nearly double the 88,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Adding to the upside surprise, April's payroll figure was revised higher to 179,000 from the previously reported 115,000, itself a strong beat when released. March was similarly upgraded to 214,000 — the first month above 200,000 since early 2024.

The data landed with force in rate markets. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee leaves rates unchanged at its meeting in roughly 12 days has now climbed to 96%, effectively ruling out any imminent policy pivot that had provided a tailwind for gold in recent weeks.

The repricing reverberated through the currency market as well, amplifying gold's drawdown. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.63% to close at 100.08, reclaiming the 100 level for the first time since March. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the metal more expensive for international buyers and typically weighs on demand.

From a technical standpoint, the session's damage extended well beyond the price decline alone. Gold broke decisively below its 200-day simple moving average — a widely monitored long-term trend indicator that had served as durable support throughout the recent bull run. Friday marked the first close beneath that moving average since November 2023, a development likely to draw cautious reassessment from technically oriented traders and institutional participants who had anchored long positions to that level.

Whether Friday's selloff represents a genuine trend reversal or a sharp but ultimately corrective pullback within a longer-term bull market will hinge in large part on how incoming economic data shape the Fed's policy calculus in the weeks ahead. For now, however, gold bears have seized the initiative.

Wishing you as always good trading,