El Dedo Del Destino - The Underlying Force Behind Changes in Market Sentiment

May 30, 2019 - 8:13pm

 by Gary Wagner

“Ambition drives you on, Ability certainly helps, but the fickle finger of fate and luck are great things *
 Fergus Henderson

For those of us old enough to remember the comedy show ‘laugh in’ by Rowan & Martin, you most certainly would remember the trophy that was awarded called the “Finger Fickle of Fate.”

In its most basic interpretation, its meaning can be paraphrased as the acknowledgement that “something ominous may happen in the future without any determination or within specific time frame.” Which is to say sometimes a shift in market sentiment

It is one of the most profound explanations as to why changes in market sentiment can occur as an unwritten, and unforeseeable force the underlying causes of change in market sentiment are not always based on logic, and can be undetecable until they occur.

Known by many names; El Dedo del Destino, The Cup of St. Sebastian and the Fickle Finger of Fate, these terms all describe the same idea, that fate is not always logical and at the time it is revealed was completely unforeseen prior to the event itself. Commonly referred to as an unseen and unforeseeable force that controls the direction of all living things, you can easily use this concept to explain sudden changes or shifts in market sentiment that give no hints whatsoever prior to the event unfolding.

In the case of the financial markets, the “fickle finger of fate” is a term that describes very well the difficulty in pinpointing the timeline when market sentiment will change to reflect new fundamentals in such market. That is to say human emotions do not always make logical sense. The pivots are ominous, and may not offer any clues as to when in the future market sentiment will shift, forecasting the timeline of occurrence is harder yet to accurately predict.

In the case of today’s respectable upside move in gold, the precious yellow metal reacted to old news that has already existed, and for whatever reason it is now the time that the market has chosen to react to that information; except to acknowledge there is no defined rationalization for the timing.

Over the last week gold pricing has had substantial upside moves on both Friday, May 24th, and today. On both occasions the rallies which occurred on were based on no more than the fickle nature of how a trader’s mind works. Seasoned and veteran traders have learned to acknowledge the feeling as instinctual, however the best traders realize these instinctual impulses are simply the internalization of many years of which they have studied these concepts and have become internalized. While sometimes these changes occur when they do without any rational logic behind the move. It is my belief that they express the fickleness of the human mind, and its emotion framework making sense out of rational and logical fundamental data.

It’s as Easy as “Paint On - Paint off & Sand on - Sand off”

In the movie the karate kid, the wise Japanese teacher “Noriyuki”, played by Pat Morita, expressed it best when he tried to teach Danielson karate. Through a repetitive action he taught his student how to completely internalize it.

Because only then will that action become a “instinctual” automatic reflex. Not until you’ve internalized an action or an intellectual concept can use that skill and, “paint on” without any effort.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action

This morning we sent out this messageTrade Alert: buy August 2019 gold @ the market

Respectable move today in gold which is currently trading up $6.80 to $7.00, basis the August 2019 contract and fixed at $1293.10.

Place a protective stop below $1273.13 , last weeks low

Our current upside target is to cover the position at $1361. We will discuss is trading detail during today’s video report

Gold Market Forecast

As you know over the last three trading days I have been talking about how my market sentiment in gold had been changing from bearish to bullish. In fact I receive questions by some of my subscribers that have been with me for a while and know my rationale behind a buy or sell trigger. The question was the same with all of my subscribers as they wondered what caused me to simply become bullish when there were no technical indicators which confirm that assumption. I simply try to explain that my change in market sentiment was because of the extremely bullish underlying fundamentals, even though they had not entered into market perception as of that time.
On today's video I will attempt to explain the difference between understanding something and internalizing that information and how that causes you to react differently

Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Bullish
Silver -> Neutral
S&P 500 -> Neutral
Bitcoin -> Neutral
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

 

Bitcoin’s Brief Bump up

Bitcoin had a brief rally today taking the digital currency above $9000 per unit. Starting at approximately 11:40 PM Eastern daylight Time BTC futures surged from approximately $8800 to a high of $9180 in approximately 30 minutes time, before correcting even faster down to the lows of today which came in at $8585. Following this 45 minute roller coaster ride pricing settled down and continues to trade slightly below its opening price. As of 4:20 PM Eastern daylight Time Bitcoin futures trading on the CME are down by 1.6% at $8615, and the brief spike in volatility seems to have resided.

Although brief, this demand based price influx provides real insight to a previously overlooked area of technical resistance, this level resides at $9185. Many analysts do not see any reason to believe this price point would be a stopping point on BTC’s rise to $10,000. However, after this weekend’s gap up traders and analysts were perplexed by the fact that pricing stalled here, and continued to for the past five trading days. On a technical basis there was no indicators that called for $9185 to be anything more than a stepping stone on the way to $10,000.

On a historical basis there is a little evidence that this level may become a hurdle. The only clues pointing to this are very brief congestion at this area in March, April and May of last year, as well as a top in the market on March 30, 2018 at approximately $9185 on an intraday basis. Although plenty of historical data points to approximately $9500 being a key level of either support or resistance. Below that nothing of any significance until $8000.

$9530 is the .38% Fibonacci retracement using the entire trading range from December 2018 when futures contracts were first offered on the CME. This area is also clearly illustrated as support or resistance in the past. For this reason I believe the area between these two price points being $9185-$9530 as a crucial and significant price point that Bitcoin must overcome if it is to (which I believe it will)  trade to $10,000 and beyond. For that reason we want to look very closely over the next week at how pricing behaves in this area. I am forecasting a likely dip in pricing before an effective close above this crucial area. If this occurs it would not only be a good opportunity for traders to buy on the dip but will also make me feel more comfortable that this market has matured and is moving in a stair step manner like all healthy markets tend to trade in. If this correction were to occur I do not see a dip below the .23% retracement at approximately $7000 likely due to Bitcoin’s resurgence of interest.

 I also believe that since Bitcoin tends to move in a very parabolic manner, it has over the last few years begun to trade in a more stable manner due to the increased futures volume and more trading options on different platforms being developed for large exchanges. This continued acceptance makes that digital currency more accessible to institutional investors, also providing more transparency, liquidity and trading options.