Gold Bounces Plus To Minus & Back Again & Again
The push and pull of dollar strength fighting with regular-trading investors has bounced gold from plus to minus, back and forth a number of times today – but in a very narrow range. Economic news was the inspiration for the indecision.
Retail sales in the U.S. fell in February by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% against expectations that they would rise 0.3%. The culprit was Old Man Winter. Additionally, core retail sales, a measure excluding automobile sales, slumped by 0.1% in February compared to forecasts for a 0.5% increase. Core sales in January dropped 1.1%, revised downward from a previously reported fall of 0.9%.
This has given pause to those who entertain notions the Fed will be raising rates anytime soon, especially given the fact that the retail/consumer mega-sector accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.
In turn, that put a damper on the dollar’s meteoric rise.
Crude oil’s latest swoon certainly did not help gold. West Texas crude resumed its role as a bearish outside influence, down over 2% in late afternoon. Brent North Sea was also down, although not by as much. And yet, the pumping continues on and on and on. Are we headed for $40 per barrel again?
As if gold bulls didn’t need any more bad news, the Dow, despite the oil drop and chip maker Intel’s earnings warning, finished the day up 250 points. Microsoft’s decline also was shrugged off.
We believe, though, the equities’ optimism is due to the fading chances the Fed will pop a surprise rate increase in April or even June. Easier credit for Wall Street means they will still have plenty of easy credit to play with and probably continue to drive equities up.
Gold traders today seemed to be the laggards in reassessing the Fed rate-rise issue. We have to remain very cognizant that the interest rate question will hound gold for some time. The rise is coming. We just don’t know when. One thing we can count on is that it will be a small rise.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
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Gold Forecast: Proper Action
On Tuesdays's video report we detailed our current trade alert. Unlike past alerts in which we either bought or sold at the market, this strategy is only implemented when defined parameters are met. We recommended that you sell gold if we ssaw prices break below identified and critical levels of support.
Gold in fact traded lower.
Trade Alert: sell gold on a break below 1158 – 1154. Place protective stop above 1165.
Yesterday morning we went short @ 1156
Maintain current short @ 1156 and maintain stop above 1165
Gold Market Forecast
There’s no doubt this has been a most interesting week in the markets in general. Just the other day the equities markets traded so drastically to the downside that they had given up all of their recent gains in 2015. Today’s dramatic upside move in the equities markets took back all of the losses seen in 2015. The equities markets seem more like a roller coaster ride which continually moves to a higher plateau. Crude oil prices were dramatically lower. The U.S. dollar gave back a little bit of its gain but is still a powerhouse to be reckoned with as it moved to a 12-year high yesterday.
All of these markets above brings us to our current outlook and forecast for the precious metals markets. When we look at current gold prices we continue to see dramatic downside pressure being placed upon the precious yellow metal. We believe that there is still dramatic downside potential, but the real question is whether gold prices will test the recent lows at 1130 and if so, how they will react from there. My current belief is that without dramatic changes in the fundamental factors, which have been applying bearish pressure to gold, we will continue to see the potential for lower pricing.
Today’s video report will not only detail our current trade but it will also focus upon our stop placement and I will be more specific in terms of where above 1165 I think we need to place our current protective stop.