Gold Closes Back Above 100-Day Moving Average

November 2, 2018 - 6:46pm

 by Gary Wagner

Yesterday’s $22 gain was significant for a multitude of reasons. First, it was the most significant single-day gain since October 11, when gold traded from just under $1,200 ($1,198) and closed a respectable $30 higher, finally settling at approximately $1,227.80 per ounce. The significance of that gain was that gold pricing finally broke above multiple key levels of resistance.

The first level gold pricing breached was the key and psychological level of $1,200, followed by an important technical level which is the 50-day moving average. By the conclusion of that move, gold was able to breach those two significant levels as well as the 0.78% Fibonacci retracement level.

Market technicians consider the 0.78% Fibonacci retracement level as the maximum but still acceptable level for a correction (retracement) to conclude before returning to the primary trend direction. The fact that gold pricing fell below that key level on August 13 signaled that the recent declines in gold had moved past a simple correction or retracement and were now deeply entrenched in a bear market scenario.

It would only take three more days when on August 16, gold prices dropped to the lowest value this year at $1,167. From there, pricing attempted to recover. However, the former level of support at $1,212 (the 0.78% retracement level) had now become strong and absolute resistance. For the remainder of August, September, and into the first week of October, gold pricing would attempt to breach that ceiling. However, on each occasion, it was unsuccessful and would then trade lower from that price point.

That all ended on October 11, which marked the termination of the long and protracted correction and signaled the beginning of a rally. Gold traded at a higher level for approximately 2 ½ weeks, hitting a high of $1,245 intraday before falling back to $1,212, which is the new and current level of support on October 31.

Yesterday’s respectable price gain was so significant because the net result was gold trading back above the 100-day moving average. With next week’s FOMC meeting and midterm elections, we can expect the real potential for increased volatility in the financial markets, which could also be the necessary spark to drive gold prices higher, above the current resistance level at the 0.618 % retracement, which is $1,245.

Wishing as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer