GOLD FORECAST 2019
With 2018 quickly coming to a conclusion, it is clear that we have all witnessed a year filled with extreme highs and lows, economic prosperity and economic uncertainties. In fact, for some of us it was the best of times, and for others it was the worst of times. However, for most of us it was both the best of times and the worst of times. Never in our history has there been such a deep chasm and divide between ideologies of those who consider themselves to be conservative, and those who consider their ideologies to be liberal.
We are certainly living in untested waters in which the leader of the United States is not a politician, but rather a businessman who is both loved and hated by his constituents.
One certainty is no matter which side of the fence you reside, your feelings and concerns are deep as to the future of our country and the potential for dynamic economic growth, or dynamic social and economic disruption.
This forecast will look at both a short and long-term timeframe. The short-term forecast will cover our predictions for the first half of 2019. Where’s the long-term timeframe will look to cover the major super cycle which began in 2001 to its conclusion which could take another three or four years.
In terms of the short-term forecast for gold which will cover the first half of 2019 there are three primary things we need to focus upon. Each of these issues could have a profound impact and in fact be extremely bullish for gold.
First is a current partial government shutdown. Of all the issues, the government shutdown I think will have the least affect in that it is inevitable that it will be resolved, it simply a matter of how long that will take.
Secondly this current administration has seen the Muller investigation look deeper and deeper into many aspects possible Russian Collusion and the Trump organization possible involvement, as well as the Trump organization use of campaign funds collectively cause tremendous political turmoil next year. Add to that a Democratic house in January 2019
Third is the current trade war with United States and China. This is you have the most deep and profound influence on US dollar strength or weakness in thereby have one of the greatest effects on gold pricing in the short-term
These three factors could certainly be extremely bullish influences on gold for the remainder of the year and the beginning of next year. However as during 2018 it will be dollar strength or weakness that will certainly be a major contributor to how gold prices change next year.
In terms of the long-term forecast for gold pricing we need to look at the big picture, utilizing data from a much longer period of time. To that end we will need to look at the dynamics and price inflections that gold has experienced for the last 20 years. In other words, the current long-term cycle. To that end we will need to focus on the events that have transpired since the middle of 2001.
Because that is when gold pricing began a dramatic and dynamic shift in the momentum of price change: it marked the beginning of the largest price rally ever witnessed in gold.
Over the last 18 years gold has had extreme price variations. In 2002 gold was trading at approximately $250 per ounce, and in the subsequent nine years pricing reached the all-time record high when a single ounce of gold traded in excess of $1900. From the middle of 2011 until the beginning of 2016 gold prices declined dramatically losing almost 50% of its value and dropping to just about $1000 per ounce.
It is my belief that at the beginning of 2016 we re-entered a bullish phase or cycle in gold pricing that continues to this day. For that reason, my forecast will look at price fluctuations from 2002 to present day in order to derive my forecast for gold not only for next year but over the next three years.
Beginning in mid-2001 gold began a dynamic rally which lasted a little over nine years. Our forecast will utilize Elliott wave theory, Fibonacci retracement and extension studies, and moving averages in conjunction with Japanese average charts to look at the current strength and direction of how the market is trending.
Wishing you a very blessed New Year with Health, Happiness, and Prosperity,