Gold holds above $1800 as silver trades to $28.00 | The Gold Forecast

Gold holds above $1800 as silver trades to $28.00

February 24, 2021 - 7:02pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gold futures traded to an intraday low of $1782.20 before recovering, closing just above $1800. As of 4:44 PM EST, the most active April 2021 contract of gold futures is currently fixed at $1802.90, which is a net decline of  $3.00  on the day. In terms of a percentage drawdown today, it was truly fractional, with gold giving up 0.015%.

However, silver was able to continue to gain value closing at the key psychological level of $28 per ounce, this basis the most active March 2021 Comex contract. Although dollar weakness was a contributor to the gains realized in silver, platinum, and palladium, the vast majority of gains realized today in those precious metals were primarily due to market participants bidding those precious metals higher.

The dollar also tempered the drop in gold prices today. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), spot gold is currently trading at $1804, which is a net decline of $2.50. On closer inspection, market participants bid gold pricing lower to the tune of $4.50, but the two dollar gain due to dollar weakness was able to temper the drop. Spot silver had a net gain of $0.30 today and is currently fixed at $27.94. According to Kitco, the $0.30 gain today was a combination of buying which resulted in a gain of  $0.27, with the remaining $0.03 directly attributable to dollar weakness.

Platinum staged a strong recovery closing up $35.50 today, with the most active April 2021 contract currently fixed at $1274.50. Most impressive was its recovery from yesterday’s low, which came in at $1218. That represents a $56.50 price swing between yesterday’s intraday low and the current closing value.

One plausible explanation for the uncoupling of gold pricing when compared to the three white precious metals; silver, platinum, and palladium, is that these three precious metals have a high demand in manufacturing and therefore will reflect the forward forecasting based on improvements in the economy which would lead to increased demand for these three metals. While gold does have industrial usage, it is far less than the other three precious metals.

While the pandemic still rages, there is solid data that indicates that the infection rate and deaths caused by  Covid –19 has been dropping. It is that information that has fueled bullish market sentiment in U.S. equities. In a  Marketwatch article today, Matt Orton, director and portfolio specialist with Carillon Tower Advisors, put it very eloquently by saying that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields are “highlighting that markets appear to be more willing to accept the economic recovery narrative” and putting pressure on prices for gold.”

He also mentioned that Chairman Jerome Powell has “specifically commented that the recent rise in bond yields is a healthy sign of economic expectations and downplayed inflationary fears from U.S. fiscal policy. This optimism on the recovery, coupled with expectations for relatively benign inflation, presents a major headwind to gold.”

The current data on the pandemic suggests that there is not only light at the end of the tunnel, but the end of the tunnel is becoming visible. Many medical experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984 and is the chief medical advisor to President Joe Biden, suggested that we could see an effective end to the pandemic by the end of 2021.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

This report is now free and publicly available to everyone

Gold Forecast: Proper Action

We are long the following; On February 18 we enter a long April Platinum trade. In at $1282. Our stop is at $1217.00

SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at $27.36, place stop at $25.98
XAGUSD: Entry at $27.26, place stop at $25.88

We also remain long SLV:
First leg SLV: @ 22.95 . Maintain Stop @ $21.95
Second leg SLV @ 24.60. Maintain Stop @ $21.95

On Thursday February 4 stops were hit on our long GLD ETF. We entered at 172.14. Our stop was hit at $168.29 (the open on Thursday) for a $3.85 loss per share.

GOLD FUTURES APRIL: Entry at 1845 - 1859 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss $3900 per contract
XAUSUD: Entry at 1845 - 1857 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss of $38 per oz
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at 25.42 - 25.46 . Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $6650 per contract
XAGUSD: Entry at 25.33 - 25.40 - Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $1.3 per oz
long February gold @ $1890.00 and stop hit @ $1902.20, for a profit of $1202.00 per contract
long Forex gold @ $1886.00 and stop hit @ $1898 for a profit of $12.00 per OZ
long March silver @ $26.31 and stop hit @ $26.41 for a profit of $500.00 per contract
long GLD @ $177.26 and stop hit @ $178.00 for a profit of $0.71 per share
long SLV @ $24.67 and stop hit @ 25.00 for a profit of $0.33 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1860-$1866 and stop hit at at $1869. Average profit $600 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1856-$1862 and stop hit at $1866. Average profit $6
long March Silver Futures at $25.16 - $25.25 and stop hit at $25.30. Average profit $450 per contract
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1830 -$1843 and out at $1850 for a profit of $700 to $2000.00 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1841 and out at $1850 for a profit of $90.00 per mini 10 oz contract
long March Silver Futures at $24.29 and out @ $24.40 for a profit of $550.00 per comex contract
long GLD @ 1$71.50 and out @ $173.00 for a profit of $1.50 per share
long SLV @ $22.30 and out @ $22.50 for a profit of $0.20 per share
Long December gold at $1899. Stop hit at $1918, for a $1900 profit
Long forex gold at $1896.00. Stop hit at $1912, for a $1600 profit
Long December silver at $24.21. Stop hit at $25.07 for a $4300 profit
Long GLD at $180.46 and stop hit at $176.42 for a loss of $4.04 per share
Long SLV at $23.23 and stop at $22.78 for a loss of $0.40 per share
Long December Gold Futures at $1926 and stop hit at $1907.30 for a loss of $18.70 per ounce
Long Forex Gold at $1922 and stop hit at $1903 for a loss of $19.00 per ounce
Long December Silver Futures at $25.13 and stop hit at $24.73 for a loss of $0.40 per ounce
Long December gold at $1890, out at $1909.30 for a profit of $1,930.00
Long December silver at $23.95, out at $24.50 for a profit of $2,750.00
Long Forex gold at $1883.68, out $1907 for a profit of $23.32 per ounce
Long GLD ETF at $178.03, out at $179.80 for a profit of $1.77 per share
Long SLV ETF at $22.66, out at $22.03 for a loss of $0.63 per share
Long December Silver (SI Z20) @ $27.07 - Stop hit @ 25.56 for a loss of $1.51 per ounce
Long GLD @ $183.91- stop hit @ $178.50 for a loss of $5.41 per share
Long SLV @ $ 26.33 - stop hit @ $23.53 for a loss of $2.80 per share
Long December gold (GC Z20) @ $1947.00 - Stop hit @ $1952 for a profit of $500.00 per contract
Long Forex gold (XAU A0-FX) @ $1939.00 - Stop hit @ $1944.80 for a profit of $5.80 per ounce
Long December gold @ $1956.50.Stop hit @ $1960 for a profit of $350.00 per contract
Long December silver @ $27.39.Stop hit @ $27.80 for a profit of $2050 per contract
Long forex gold @ $1948.55.Stop hit @ $1955 for a profit of $6.45 per ounce
Long GLD @ $183.57.Stop hit @ $184.36 for a profit of .79 per share
Long SLV @ $25.10.Stop hit @ $25.75 for a profit of .65 per share
Long September silver at $26.68. Our stop was hit @ $26.87 for a profit of $1000 per contract.
Long December Gold at $1955.50. Our stop was hit @ $1979 for a profit of $2350 per contract
Long Forex Gold at $1947. Our stop was hit @ $1967,52 for a profit of $20.52 per Ounce
Long September silver at $24.40. Our stop was hit @ $25.99 for a profit of $7950 per contract
Bought GLD @ $166.74. Our stop was hit @ $$183.00 for a profit of $16.87 per share.
Bought SLV @ $18.00 Our stop was hit @ $23.80 for a profit of $5.80 per share.
NUGT – we sold all shares and took profits of $33.19 per share
Long December gold at $1997, we covered the trade @ $2035 for a profit of $3800 per contract
Long Forex gold at $1977, we covered the trade @ $2017 for a profit of $40.00 per ounce

Gold Market Forecast

An interesting day in the precious metal’s markets with only gold sustaining fractional losses. While we remain bullish on silver and have maintained active positions in futures, Forex and SLV they have all now gone into profits. The caveat is you don’t take a loss or take a profit until the position is covered, so I want to reserve my joy for the point at which we covered this trade. I’m still looking at an upside target for silver of $30-$33, however there is minor resistance at current pricing of around $28 per ounce.

On today’s video report we will also address ours strategy and target to exit our current long platinum trade if it continues to move to higher ground. In the meantime, I am genuinely thankful that we were fortunate enough to not get stopped out yesterday when market forces took intraday pricing to within a dollar of our stop before recovering.

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