Jobs Data, Fed Minutes, ISM Manufacturing, Trump and Xi

This week brings with it a multitude of events that will no doubt shape the future pricing of gold and silver. Key events include today’s release of the ISM manufacturing report and Wednesday’s release of Fed minutes. This series of events will reach a crescendo with Presidents Trump’s scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping, as well as Friday's jobs report.

The March ISM Manufacturing report, out today, showed a small decline from 57.7 in February to 57.2 in March. This report, coupled with general weakness in U.S. equities, was supportive of gold prices today. As of 4 o’clock Eastern Standard Time, gold is trading up approximately four dollars at 1252.90.

Fed Minutes to be Released on Wednesday

Wednesday's release of last month’s Fed minutes could certainly infuse market participants with new insights as to the inner workings of our Central Bank and Federal Reserve members. Analysts will be gleaning the minutes to discern any new hawkish or dovish tones that were not already known.

Major Accumulation by Money Managers of Long Gold Positions

The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report published by the CFTC indicated that money managers increased their long futures positions by 62%. This report covers a week-long time cycle ending on March 28. According to Kitco News “the net-long position of money managers in the disaggregated report rose 62% to 91,043 futures contracts from 56,195 the week before. This was fueled by a combination of fresh buying (total longs rose by 20,620 lots) and short covering (total shorts, or bearish trades, declined by 14,228).”

The Crescendo and The Finale

These reports might, in fact, pale in comparison to events scheduled for the end of the week. On Thursday Presidents Trump’s scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping will begin at Trumps Palm Beach home and golf course, Mar-a-Lago. Considering statements made by President Trump about China’s trade policies, it will be interesting to see if the two presidents can work with each other. To that end, their talks could contain the beginnings of a bridge between our two countries, or a further divide. These discussions could also culminate into little more than a friendly handshake.

Capping off this week will be the release of the non-farm payroll jobs report on Friday. Currently, analysts are forecasting the addition of 175,000 new jobs. This information is being factored into current pricing. Because of this report, real market gyrations on Friday would not be confined if we get a number far below or above current estimates.

Wishing you as always, good trading,