Video January 25 2013 Archives-Daily-Show | The Gold Forecast

Video January 25 2013 Archives-Daily-Show

April 26, 2013 - 9:17pm

 by Gary Wagner

 

Economically, we are working in an extremely unusual atmosphere across the world. 
 
Germany's business confidence index was up significantly on the same day that Great Britain-watchers declared that country to be definitively in a recession, the third since the economic crisis started in 2007.
 
U.S. weekly unemployment claims dipped to a 5-year low, but when January job numbers are issued the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at about 7.8%. 
 
The S&P eclipsed the 1500 level and many equities analysts are predicting a bull run in the stock markets. Earnings are up modestly among blue chip companies, but the only really bright spot is the energy sector. (Even there, slow business and industry equals slow consumption.) And, as noted in our Daily Report here yesterday, the IMF offered a glass-half-empty assessment of economic growth worldwide and issued warnings that the big economies should not be cutting spending just at this moment. 
 
The "irrational exuberance" over stocks may be one of the taps sapping money out of gold and silver markets and carrying that money over to equities. Of particular interest is the large percentage of small traders who are moving into equities. 
 
"Economic conditions are looking up, so people are rethinking their investments in gold," Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading in Chicago, said. Lesh added that "Equities seem more remunerative than gold at the moment." 
 
There are other experts who - citing the magical 1700 level - say that since gold traders failed to break through to the top side, then necessarily gold will test lows in the 1550's. (Silver also failed to breach 32.50 and so too was punished.) And the sun could go dark tomorrow. 
 
Next week brings another FOMC meeting. So far, the wires and waves are thin on information concerning the posture of the board. By Monday we should start getting some rumors or even solid statements.
 
One thing is certain, the recent U.S. economic news, while growing more positive, will not be strong enough to inspire the Fed to stop stimulating. 
 

As always, wishing you good trading. 

  
Gary Wagner

 

Executive Producer
The Gold Forecast

gary@thegoldforecast.com 

On Skype Gary.S. Wagner

 

Proper Action     

 

GOLD & SILVER

  

Flat with no open positions.

  

    

Market Forecast

 On a technical basis today's lower pricing in gold and silver can be best characterized as a continuation of the correction that began a few days ago. Over the last few days we have seen this market move to lower pricing as the week progressed. Key elements indicating resistance in gold really came at $1700 per ounce. At the beginning of the week with gold unable to sustain a rally at and above 1700 appeared the real first signs that the rallies gold and silver were then in were beginning to unravel. It is my belief at this point that we have concluded the first wave of our intermediate wave three and have entered a corrective wave two, which is a sub count of our intermediate third wave. Today's video will look at current price activity in regards to Fibonacci retracement and look at various models of how this correction could unfold. For the last three days we have talked about exiting our current trades on any sign of real weakness, and such was the case. Traders should be flat with no open positions in either gold or silver, as we await the conclusion of this corrective wave two before reentering the market from the long side. Once we have technical evidence that the corrective wave has concluded I would look for the upcoming sub count of wave three to test and challenge 1700 and then 1750, our current key resistance areas in gold.

 

 

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