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Beaten Up By The Buck                          

 

The dollar rose against a big basket of currencies Tuesday, sending gold and silver down. In "real" trading, however, gold held its own quite nicely, when divorced from the dollar surge. 

 

A string of recent, solid U.S. economic data gave underpinning to the view that the Federal Reserve will scale back economic stimulus measures sooner than expected. The greenback rally accelerated when it rose above the key 100-yen level for the first time since early June, spurred upward by more expectations of a reduction in the Fed's quantitative easing program. 

 

Certain statistics this week provided fodder for the Fed reduction argument as reports showed a rebound in American manufacturing and a rise in factory orders. Expectations of a reduction of the asset purchase program has been buoying bond yields and enhancing the appeal of dollar assets, especially as other major central banks continue to lean toward further monetary easing. 

 

"Our sense is that the Fed comments and recent economic data are still consistent with the tapering message and that's positive for the dollar," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York. 

 

However, William Dudley, head of the  New York Fed, said on Tuesday "The dollar has also been supported by the contrast in monetary policy between the Fed and the other major central banks. The U.S. is moving to a less dovish direction, while the other central banks are staying dovish or becoming even more dovish," Serebriakov added.

 

The Commerce Department reported today that U.S. factory orders rose 2.1% in May from April, beating expectations for a 2.0% increase and well above the upwardly revised 1.3% rate in April.

The numbers drew approval in equities and dollar-trading markets by renewing expectations that the Federal Reserve remains will begin tapering its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase program later this year.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Friday, when the the Labor Department will release its June jobs report. Markets hope those numbers will act as a bell-weather as to when the Fed may begin to dismantle stimulus programs. 

 

But, but, but... according to AP, "a measure of manufacturing employment fell in June to 48.7, its lowest level since September 2009. That suggests that Friday's June employment report will show that factories cut jobs for the fourth straight month." (We don't need no stinkin' workers.)

 

Rational irrationality seems to be prevailing. But some voices are speaking to the heart of the matter.

  

The barely left leaning Policymic.com commentary site had a long piece about employment today. It said in part, "Employment is still the key metric for the U.S., both for short-term market movements and for long-term sustainable economic growth. From a long-term perspective spare capacity in the labor market is a drag on growth. While unemployment rates have been improving since the crash, much of that improvement has been in short-term unemployment and there is still some way to go to get from 7.6% to the long-term average of 5.82%. Making those people productive and more able to consume will not only boost economic growth but reduce the numerator of the public debt/deficit problem by bringing down benefits payments."

 

Every once in a while, the buck actually does stop and we get to an important truth. 

   
Wishing you as always good trading,
 
 
 

   

Gary S. Wagner

Executive Producer


Market Forecast: 

After witnessing gold move almost $85 off of its recent lows that were seen last week gold is trading under pressure about $10 lower on the day. We have spoken about our current resistance in gold at approximately 1274 per ounce. This is based upon a 78% retracement. Last night gold traded to an intraday high of approximately 1268 per ounce before faltering and trading under pressure. This being the first time since trading below 1200 that gold has attempted to test and take out this current resistance level. Although we are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination it would not surprise me if gold took another stab at current resistance. If in fact that occurrence unfolds it would be appropriate to pull profits above 1265 on any kind of weakness if and when gold reached this point.


Video archives:

http://thegoldforecast.com/video/april-2013-archives-daily-shows

http://thegoldforecast.com/video/may-2013-archives-daily-shows

 

 

 

Proper Action:Long gold at 1240 stop below 1229

Long silver at 19.65 stop below 19.25

 

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COT LINK  See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.

 

 

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer