Video-June-04-2013-Archives-Daily-Show | The Gold Forecast

Video-June-04-2013-Archives-Daily-Show

June 5, 2013 - 6:00pm

 by Gary Wagner

 

 

Looking For Trouble                                      

The general tenor of the precious metals markets has recently been controlled by traders and investors who, if not exactly bearish, are inarguably on the lookout for any sort of negative news circulating around the world. They found some of that bad news today.
 
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that importation of gold would be further restricted after imports jumped from 142 tons in April to 162 tons in May."The news that the RBI will curb imports of gold by agencies has weighed prices down today as it is a wider restriction and could imply lower imports of gold into the country," said Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar. 
 
He also said that June imports could drop to between 50 and 100 tons with India at the end of the wedding and Hindu festival seasons. Both are traditionally major gold-buying events.  One has to wonder just how quickly the restrictions can be put in place and leaves us questioning whether the reaction is a little premature. This is especially true because India's customs and tariffs enforcement wall is notoriously porous, especially when it comes to gold.
 
Gold and silver closed off slightly less than 1%.  Importantly, gold bounced off its lows to finish at 1400 an important resistance/support level. 
 
Although dollar strength is adding a small bit of pressure on prices, regular trading accounted for 80% of the loss in both gold and silver.
 
In other economies around the world, gold is still seen as a currency inflation hedge. Deutsche Bank is advising its clients to buy gold in yen and Australian dollars. 
 
This tells us a number of things. We can expect the U.S. dollar to remain strong, relatively stable and free of inflation pressures for the moment. 
 

Deutsche Bank points to the significant increase in Japan's balance sheet as likely to cause the yen to weaken further and has said on numerous occasions that the Australian dollar is overvalued.

Gold in yen is down just 3.6% in 2013, in the last 12 months the yen has fallen by 10.1% against gold, showing gold's importance as a hedge against currency devaluation.

Of course gold is down about 13.5% in U.S. dollar terms in the last year. 

We can't look at gold futures for any direction. August gold was down $19 on Friday, up 18.70 yesterday (Monday), and settled down 14.70 today.

Needlessly so, but traders and investors are on tenterhooks as the June FOMC meeting approaches, two weeks from now. Friday will give us a powerful insight into what will happen when May's labor report is issued. 

A quick editorial: The fiscal policy of the legislative and executive branch cannot be fully countered by Fed monetary policy and mortgage and bond buyback programs. Monetary policy is, by its nature, weaker and slower than cuts in government spending and rises in taxes are. If we are witnessing slippage toward recession, which the equities markets seem to be indicating, responsibility lies squarely on Congress and the President.

Wishing you as always good trading,

   

 Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer


Market Forecast: 

For the first time in the last few days we have seen gold neither take back the prior days upside or downside move. Also on a technical basis gold hit a intraday low of 1387, and bounced off of that price point. These two facts coupled with a Fibonacci retracement level at 1385 and a another retracement level at 1387, gives technical evidence of a possible bottom in gold for the intermediate Outlook.

We recommended entering the market from the long side this morning, which would’ve put your by at around $1400 per ounce. Our exit strategy on this particular trade will look carefully at the different resistance levels currently found in gold. The first level that we need to overcome is 1420. If gold has the ability to trade above 1420 that I believe it will gold on to test 1450, with 1475 being major resistance currently in gold. Depending on how gold reacts if it continues to move higher will determine our exit strategy in terms of price point.


Video archives:

http://thegoldforecast.com/video/april-2013-archives-daily-shows

http://thegoldforecast.com/video/may-2013-archives-daily-shows

 

 

 

Market Sentiment:

Price support in gold at 1385 

Long gold @ 1400 stop below 1380

 

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From the week of 05.31. 2013

COT LINK  See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.

 

 

This report is now free and publicly available to everyone

Gold Forecast: Proper Action

Closed trades:

GLD: On April 12th our stop was hit at $162. We went long at 162.82. Trade resulted in 0.82 loss per share.

Futures: Gold (GC J21) in at 1722.80. Out at at $1728 for a profit of $520.00- per Comex contract.
Forex: XAUUSD in at 1724.40. Out at at $1729 for a profit of $4.60- per ounce.
ETF's: GLD in at 161.55. Out at at $161.90 for a profit of $0.35- per share

SLV in at $24.24. Stop hit at $23.50, for a loss of $1.05 per share
May 2021 (SI K21) in at $26.26. Stop hit at $25.3 for a loss of $0.96 ounce
Forex silver in at $26.17. Stop hit at $25,30 or a loss of $0.87 per ounce

On February 18 we entered a long April Platinum trade. In at $1282. Our stop was hit today (02/26/21) @ at $1217.00
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at $27.36, and then closed the trade later @ $27.45.
XAGUSD: Entry at $27.26,, our stop was hit at $27.39

We closed our positions in SLV:
First leg SLV: @ 22.95 .out at @ $24.99
Second leg SLV @ 24.60. out at @ $24.99

On Thursday February 4 stops were hit on our long GLD ETF. We entered at 172.14. Our stop was hit at $168.29 (the open on Thursday) for a $3.85 loss per share.

GOLD FUTURES APRIL: Entry at 1845 - 1859 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss $3900 per contract
XAUSUD: Entry at 1845 - 1857 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss of $38 per oz
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at 25.42 - 25.46 . Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $6650 per contract
XAGUSD: Entry at 25.33 - 25.40 - Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $1.3 per oz
long February gold @ $1890.00 and stop hit @ $1902.20, for a profit of $1202.00 per contract
long Forex gold @ $1886.00 and stop hit @ $1898 for a profit of $12.00 per OZ
long March silver @ $26.31 and stop hit @ $26.41 for a profit of $500.00 per contract
long GLD @ $177.26 and stop hit @ $178.00 for a profit of $0.71 per share
long SLV @ $24.67 and stop hit @ 25.00 for a profit of $0.33 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1860-$1866 and stop hit at at $1869. Average profit $600 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1856-$1862 and stop hit at $1866. Average profit $6
long March Silver Futures at $25.16 - $25.25 and stop hit at $25.30. Average profit $450 per contract
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1830 -$1843 and out at $1850 for a profit of $700 to $2000.00 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1841 and out at $1850 for a profit of $90.00 per mini 10 oz contract
long March Silver Futures at $24.29 and out @ $24.40 for a profit of $550.00 per comex contract
long GLD @ 1$71.50 and out @ $173.00 for a profit of $1.50 per share
long SLV @ $22.30 and out @ $22.50 for a profit of $0.20 per share
Long December gold at $1899. Stop hit at $1918, for a $1900 profit
Long forex gold at $1896.00. Stop hit at $1912, for a $1600 profit
Long December silver at $24.21. Stop hit at $25.07 for a $4300 profit
Long GLD at $180.46 and stop hit at $176.42 for a loss of $4.04 per share
Long SLV at $23.23 and stop at $22.78 for a loss of $0.40 per share
Long December Gold Futures at $1926 and stop hit at $1907.30 for a loss of $18.70 per ounce
Long Forex Gold at $1922 and stop hit at $1903 for a loss of $19.00 per ounce
Long December Silver Futures at $25.13 and stop hit at $24.73 for a loss of $0.40 per ounce
Long December gold at $1890, out at $1909.30 for a profit of $1,930.00
Long December silver at $23.95, out at $24.50 for a profit of $2,750.00
Long Forex gold at $1883.68, out $1907 for a profit of $23.32 per ounce
Long GLD ETF at $178.03, out at $179.80 for a profit of $1.77 per share
Long SLV ETF at $22.66, out at $22.03 for a loss of $0.63 per share

Gold Market Forecast

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