Bitcoin Erases Recent Gains
Bitcoin's recent price action has reaffirmed its dominant downtrend, with the cryptocurrency touching a low of $57,721 today, slightly below Tuesday's crash bottom. The weekly chart is on the verge of forming a bearish engulfing pattern, as last week's 10% advance has been completely eroded.
Trend Analysis
The declining trend channel has now established its fifth consecutive lower high since March's all-time peak. Traders are now questioning whether a corresponding lower low will materialize. To confirm this bearish pattern, Bitcoin would need to breach $49,500 before surpassing $65,000.
Technical Indicators
Shifting focus to the daily chart reveals a bearish alignment of key technical indicators:
- Moving Averages: The 50, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have arranged themselves in a full bearish configuration. The 200-day SMA sits atop, followed by the 100-day, with the 50-day at the bottom. This bearish alignment was last observed in late January when Bitcoin traded around $22,000.
- MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests further downside potential. It crossed below the zero line on Wednesday, entering negative territory. Today's signal line crossover, with the MACD line (blue) dipping below the signal line (orange), often indicates intensifying downward pressure.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen below the 50 mark, currently hovering near 44. This neutral-leaning reading suggests ample room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The daily Ichimoku presents a neutral stance, featuring thin clouds with pricing nestled between the base line (red) at $57,500 (current support) and the conversion line (blue) at $61,500 (current resistance).
Recent Trade Performance
Our short-term Ichimoku analysis yielded a successful trade this week. Subscribers who followed our Tuesday night recommendation entered short positions at $62,800 and exited at $60,200 on Wednesday afternoon, netting a $2,600 profit per Bitcoin. For detailed insights into our signals and techniques, can be found here.
Outlook and Trading Strategy
We currently maintain a neutral stance, awaiting further indications of Bitcoin's next move. While the weekly chart remains decidedly bearish, the daily chart has only recently tilted towards bearish territory. The 1-hour chart, particularly its Ichimoku Cloud, has proven to be a reliable short-term indicator. Although still bearish, it is less severe than Tuesday's readings.
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