BTC back at its favorite price point
Before I go into today’s article I would like to point out a mistake in yesterday’s article at the end of the equation I solved it said $650 was the price per Bitcoin after the first halving took place, while it was in fact the price after the second halving. I have also decided to come back to that equation on a later date as it is very tedious and I feel the markets deserve our attention right now, we will wrap up this topic on a later date.
On our short term view BTC has indeed shown resilience by its sharp recovery and although isn’t yet on an uninterrupted path to a new ATH, it has shown it is still in a bull run. The last gap to the downside appearing on a daily chart of CME futures this Monday did not penetrate the .618% retracement, which was also the price point in which it broke out of the ascending triangle at the end of April. Also the candle ended up as a textbook long legged doji that completely filled the large gap created from March 6th - 9th. Since then BTC has filled that gap as well as the gap that showed up on Monday. The resistance level we broke above Thursday coincides with the 78% retracement level. I think we could see support at this level and if we do it would be extremely bullish.
For the long term picture I want to focus your attention to our first chart and the dashed green line drawn in. This is a trend line I had drawn on my charts back at the end of 2019, what I attempted to do was forecast the median or average price of Bitcoin for years and years to come. Basically, I believe the Price may fluctuate above and below this trend line but will move up with a gradual slope. I won’t go into how it was formed or by what data points only that it is based mainly on the phycology of BTC spikes and dips. And BTC seems to abide by innately human emotional greed or what some may call market sentiment.
You can use this trendline to see were this study predicts approximately were price will be at any date in the future. If the line holds true as I strongly believe it will, BTC will be around $13,800 this time next year.