It's beginning to feel a lot like Summer

As we enter Summer Bitcoin is once again in the Southern hemisphere and the middle of Winter opposite America and Europe. For as harsh and frigid as the temperature in the crypto space has been and is forecasted to be, Bitcoin is showing resilience by forming a base right where it did last Summer. Exactly one year ago today, Bitcoin was trading roughly $3,000 higher than it is today. The one aspect that has taken some by surprise is the holding of BTC’s current, long-term support level.

Bitcoin has been at this uber important area of support represented by a price bottom three times over the past 18 months. This triple bottom in BTC occurs at $28,750 which is a price that multiple technical studies allude to as an important zone. The most used of these studies are from Fibonacci ratios, of which Bitcoin is at 61.8% from the lows of the Covid crash to the all-time highs.

One technical indicator, the 21-day exponential moving average, has been quite successful in pointing to the current trend being at a midway point. For example in the run-up to $58,000 in February 2021 Bitcoin traded above the 21-day EMA from $13,000 until $34,000 when at the halfway point it briefly dipped below that moving average. This midway point dip below the 21-day EMA can be seen in the rally that followed from $29,000 to $64,000 as well as the rally that ended last Summer’s consolidation phase.

In the consolatory period from last Summer, we also had this brief break above this EMA, only difference is in a consolatory period it didn’t signal the midpoint in price moves but rather in time before the next trend would take place.

We just had our second tiny and temporary move above the 21-day EMA yesterday. As such one could infer that the consolidation phase is halfway over and we should see our next trend occur a month from now.