At the moment (4:45 PM EST) bitcoin futures are trading back in the bullish trend channel that it had broken out of on Tuesday and was resistance yesterday. This also harmonizes with our 78% retracement at $9,249, which is exactly were the market closed yesterday.

After a nearly ten week climb from the bottom at $4,210 that took it to $10,000 Bitcoin futures have left the recent upward channel breaking clearly below it in trading today. The support line I am referring to (dashed red line in first chart) was touched upon nine times on the way up to $10,000. 

Last Friday we spoke about my long term projected price average and although it was not intended as a support/resistance line it did indeed prove to act as resistance as the rally of the lows in mid-March was stopped dead in its tracts May 7^th and 8^th.  In both days edging over this line intra-day only to close below it like every other candle so far this year.

In the past many traders and market analysts have looked to outside markets in order to get a better sense for the commodity or index they are involved in. One example of this is forecasting future moves in gold by observing movement in equities, crude oil or treasury yields in order to gauge the influx or outflow of capital in the precious metal.

Despite the fact that BTC has had three consecutive down days or red candles, it resembles more of a consolidation period I believe then a pivot point. One pattern I have noticed a lot in BTC recently is a tri star formation, and we see it three times so far appearing at three distinct resistance levels before breaking above them.

Before I go into today’s article I would like to point out a mistake in yesterday’s article at the end of the equation I solved it said $650 was the price per Bitcoin after the first halving took place, while it was in fact the price after the second halving.

Before I go into today’s article I would like to point out a mistake in yesterday’s article at the end of the equation I solved it said $650 was the price per Bitcoin after the first halving took place, while it was in fact the price after the second halving.

The title of our article is a reference to the Bitcoin mining reward per block being cut in half from 12.5 to 6.25. This marked the third halving event since Bitcoin’s creation and it is designed to cut block rewards for miners 29 more times, with the next two estimated to occur around 2024 and 2028.

A little bit less than a week after we issued a buy signal for anyone not in the market already to go long at $9,300 Bitcoin futures on the CME plummeted over 15% and as of 3:00 PM EST is trading down $1,545 at $8,485.