Skip to main content

BTC futures have been consolidating for the last four trading sessions in the same area it had done so in the beginning of March, right before BTC plummeted $5,000 to the yearly lows only seven days later. The level we had resistance at before this year’s crash is the same level we have resistance currently as well.

This is a question I had hoped would be answered after both the S&P 500 (along with all other major indexes) and BTC futures began a deep correction at the end of February due to the growing covid-19 pandemic.

My readers or anyone who follows Bitcoin’s price action closely would know that last week and then again this week BTC broke out of formations that had defined price action for the first four months of 2020. But initiating a long or short position solely off of these formations is not recommended. That is why they must be used in conjunction with other indicators for them to be tradeable.

So today I will cover the other indicators and signals that flashed “BUY BTC!”  As early as two weeks ago when on April 22nd Bitcoin futures broke out of the compression triangle spanning the entire range of 2020 up until that point when we had a clear and decisive breakout to the upside.

Just as we spoke about yesterday BTC was caught in a compression triangle all week very visible on a four hour candlestick chart and was poised to break out today are initial target was $8,000 - $8,200 but as you can see there were a number of key price points that were holding BTC back since its most recent fall such as the pennant formation highlighted in our first chart.

BTC futures have been fluctuating between a few dollars up and a few dollars down in trading today and as of 5:00 PM EST is fractionally up on the day (0.32%) at $7,805. Although today’s candle is a doji candle which can either signal a reversal or a point of consolidation I see it more of a consolatory time and in this article I will explain why I believe this.

BTC futures are continuing they’re breakout to the upside gaping up to open above the 50-day moving average  which was effective resistance that BTC was unable to close above both last Thursday and Friday.

Bitcoin futures held on to the critical priced that had been plaguing the asset for weeks so even though it had a super minor loss on trading off by $45 at $7,580 in the CME’s futures exchange. The key level that BTC was able to hold is the 50% retracement that comes in at $7,440, an area that served as resistance for the last month.

Today Bitcoin futures broke above what was resistance at $7,440, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As of 6 PM EST BTC futures on the CME are trading up 6.6% at $7,630. The high of today took pricing back to levels not seen in well over a month and signals higher pricing to come.

On both daily and weekly candle charts we can see how BTC has broken above its steep bearish trend line starting from last week when it first crossed this trend. However BTC is still greatly range bound. In CME futures the range is between $6,500 and $7,500. All things being equal I expect this range to contain current pricing for the next week to two weeks.