Gold

Yesterday, after the long holiday weekend, we might have expected some hint of certainty but we received instead contradictory data, which, in all objectivity, however, was quite positive for the U.S. economy. Some of it reinforced the idea that the Fed would raise rates in the June meeting. Some of the data old the hawks to step down and wait one more FOMC meeting. 

Considering the recent price declines in gold, one must not forget that the precious yellow metal has been one of the best performing assets in 2016.

If anyone sees any inflation, please report it to us. Not the CPI, but the GDP inflation index and while taking into account the deflator index. Essentially, there is none, even when you factor in the big bump back toward “normal” provided by rising crude prices.

On to Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s remarks during an interview today at Harvard's Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.

Conventional wisdom, as expressed by those who have turned very bullish on European and U.S. financial stocks, is saying the Fed will raise rates in June.

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Equities Lead Charge As All Risk Is On For The Day

In a classic risk-on day, equities, oil and the U.S. dollar rocketed up as gold fell and bond yields rose. On such a briskly upbeat day, it was only natural that the Japanese yen would fall against the dollar about as strongly as did the euro.

The 800,000-pound Godzilla in the room at the moment is the fear of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

As of Friday, interest-rate futures were pricing in a 30% probability of an increase at the June 14/15 meeting, up from 5% several days earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Although the fear-factor index lightened up today, (the oft-cited VIX index on the CBOE), there is quite a bit of uncertainty and therefore volatility stalking the markets.

It seems that even safe havens are not attracting the kind of money we might normally see when equities take a turn down and seem to be overvalued.

The day after a release of somewhat controversial Federal Reserve meeting minutes finds us with markets in reconnoitering mode.

The wait for and the actual release of the Fed minutes from the April FOMC meeting has been steering the ship of finance as of late and definitely throughout today’s sessions. Gold has been particularly sensitive to the fears surrounding the perceived hawkish mood at the Fed.