Gold

Many experts are suddenly touting the idea that the oil crash and long-standing route is dead and ready for burial.

Certainly oil prices are acting as if that is true. At 3 o’clock in New York, West Texas Intermediate and Brent North Sea are up over 5.00%. For Brent, perhaps more significantly, it is looking to close over $40 per barrel.

It’s getting close to Fed O’clock.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is still six business days away but the avalanche of data – especially the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment report for February issued earlier today – will stoke the rate-hike debate and roil the markets till the minutes are released one week from Tuesday.

In trading at 4 o’clock in New York, gold is sitting at $1261 per ounce. It is pulling the rest of the precious metals complex up, although it appears that raging palladium would do quite well if it went solo.

Two reports of note were issued today. The first, and more complicated, is the Fed national Beige Book, which covers the (approximately) six weeks through February 22.

Markets were driven by our usual friend – crude oil, as well as by stronger-than-expected data from the U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to 49.5 in February from 48.2 the previous month, comfortably surpassing expectations of 48.5 from a Reuter’s poll of economists.

As hopes for a more stable and subdued trading day in equities faded, gold leaped ahead to start the week. In late afternoon, gold is up over $16.

In fact, the whole precious metals complex, reflecting not just the appeal of haven buying but an overall interest in metals for profit, is up heartily. Platinum boomed up over 2.00% on the session.

Gold fell back today, based primarily on strength in the U.S. dollar, which on its own pushed the yellow precious metal down 0.70%. Nevertheless, it is on track for a solid weekly gain. Aside from the swaggering greenback, gold was facing headwinds from early up-moves in oil and equities, although as both of those markets soured; gold did not commensurately rise in reaction.

What is the feeling in your financial ear? That’s the dizziness from the swooping, climbing, falling and twisting of oil prices and the effects of those maneuvers on other markets.

One month ago, crude oil closed at 33.35. Today it settled at $32.15. In between those marks, the swing above and below $30 per barrel has been about 10% on either side of the line. It hasn’t budged out of the range. Normally, 10% is a big number. Given the painfully low price of oil, the 10% has been devalued, if not in reality, then psychologically.

Gold rose today by 1.00% (as of 3PM in New York). It was up about $12. Silver was also up but by a smaller percentage, 0.4%.

Oil and equities drove haven plays. Traders were also doing some short covering – emergency surgery to repair Monday’s larger-than-expected drop.