A softer greenback was no match for regular trading in dollar-denominated commodities. Gold and silver both fell, although they are off their early lows. Oil is also down, although the fundamental thrust behind oil is complicated right now, which we touch on below. Gold was off about $7.00 and silver about 14 cents or 0.80%.

Two important Hindu festivals in India stirred demand for physical gold, which helped to spur higher prices in spot and futures. Since falling from its recent high on September 30th and a subsequent drop on October 5th, gold has been trading in a narrow and tightly defined range.

Gold is off about $1.70 per ounce today, virtually all of that loss coming from dollar strength. Silver gained via regular trading strength, even with the high-dollar headwinds.

In spite of the continued surge of the U.S. dollar, gold is eking out a gain today thanks to regular trading activity. The dollar dragged gold down by 0.35% and regular trading pushed it up about 0.55%. Silver was more or less in the same boat and both leading precious metals inched up marginally to end the week.

Currency fluctuations again are helping to drive prices in the precious metals markets. Gold is resisting the force through up-trending regular trading but silver is having no such luck.

Early in the trading day the U.S. dollar rose against the euro on speculation that during the current European Central Bank meeting, the bank’s head, Mario Draghi, will push back hard against a cadre that wants to start “tapering” asset purchases. However, as the afternoon wore on, the dollar moved back to even with the euro and then went slightly lower.

The euro was down a hair against the U.S. dollar. The yen and British pound were up. It’s no surprise there should be conflicted signals among trading trends given the mixed messages coming out of the Fed.

Gold is up today, winning a few dollars from both dollar weakness and regular trading. It may not be time to break out the champagne, fundamentally speaking, but the week is off to a good start for gold bulls. At 4PM, spot gold is up around $4.00.

There was a torrent of data and commentary to end the week today, which pulled some haven bets down but pushed equities and the dollar up.

We are entering a phase in which we have to begin discussing fairly consistently the odds for a December rate rise. We are already leaning, on a fundamental basis, away from December, a minority position.