Gold

Searching everywhere for a solid answer for crude’s sudden and unexpected rise, we have to settle on casino mentality speculative forces afoot in the marketplace.

Turning the old adage on its head, equities indices across the globe are pulsing with new life and – dare we say? – optimism. Was the deep correctional dive and equally steep return of stocks really necessary?

We need to let something sink in: Investors today sharply reduced the probability of a an interest rate move next month, with trading in federal funds futures on Wednesday implying only a 24% probability they will act, compared with 48% on August 18. 

Of course, we can lay this at the feet of the China meltdown but that would be too glib, and too incomplete.

While China’s Shanghai composite made more noisy news overnight by falling another 7.5%, the real news today is that the Hang Sen (HIS), Hong Kong’s composite, held its ground and even advanced. The HSI is simply a more rational indicator of where Asia as a whole is going. It is staffed by experienced pros and is relatively free of the bureaucratic manipulation that preys upon Shanghai.

Monday Morning

At 12 PM in New York, markets seemed to be righting themselves after an indescribably volatile overnight session in China and then Europe that bled over to Wall Street. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exploded to 53 after having tread water in the 10-to-20 range for most of the year.

Runaway train never going back
Wrong way on a one way track
Seems like I should be getting somewhere
Somehow I'm neither here nor there
                – Soul Asylum

Crude oil right now reminds us of those apocalyptic movies where an asteroid hurtles toward Earth and everyone watches as it grows bigger and bigger while a countdown to doomsday pops up on every television screen from Siberia to South Florida. Moreover, the general populace engages in antic behavior ranging from screaming at the neighbors to promiscuous sex.

Editors note: We have opened up today's Trending Market video report for all Gold Forecast members to view.

Frogster is an early video game where a cute little amphibian valiantly tries to cross a heavily trafficked street. The player’s job is to get Froggy across without letting him get squished.

Maybe it’s just too hard to focus on hard data. Maybe the lazy in the world like to talk a good game and get their panties in a bunch over opinions (in the FOMC minutes) that we’re all familiar with by now. 

Every day, fundamentals analysts are called upon to divine the future. So, a theory has to be found for almost everything. Drought? Gold rises. No, wait: drought plus wildfire? Gold falls. It can get a little silly.

However, there are some cyclical movers of markets that border on technical forces but aren’t, of course.