Gold

With no fresh news to propel it, gold is trading quietly lower today as we head into the weekend.

All we got out of Tsar Putin was more posturing militarily. The absurd parade that shows off Russia's military hardware every year was particularly grotesque this go round given the tense situation in Ukraine.  

There was little in the way of hard news to drive gold far either up or down. So, we had subdued trading, which if you look only at the "normal" trading, was positive.

Gold was up about $2.50 before the strengthening dollar drove it back down to near even on the day.

You can't outrun the history train.

Today's market-driving news consists of two prongs, plain and simple.

The macro side of the news let us in on some details of the thinking of the FOMC, regarding where they believe the U.S. economy is going. Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the Fed is pleased with the progress of the world's largest economy in every sector except housing.

Normal trading drove gold down, but it has been mightily propped up by a falling dollar.

The greenback fell about 0.4% against the euro today, action that helped add over $6 to gold. Investors, though, took time to gather up some profits and on the counter side, helped push prices down about $6.50. So, we're off about $1.50 for the day.

Safe-haven buying erupted today in the gold-buying market as the already tense situation in Ukraine boiled over and the country appeared to be on the brink of civil war.

The flash point has become Odessa. Odessa is important because it is Ukraine's port on the Black Sea and is at the heart of an ethnically mixed region composed of Ukrainians, Russians, Tartars and Georgians.

After being cuffed around for much of the week, including early today, gold fought back with a vengeance. The reasons are contradictory and a little confusing.

Yes, indeed, there was renewed violence today in Ukraine, and the tensions seemed to be spreading and intensifying. Those facts alone can only explain some of the rise in gold.

After being cuffed around for much of the week, including early today, gold fought back with a vengeance. The reasons are contradictory and a little confusing.

Yes, indeed, there was renewed violence today in Ukraine, and the tensions seemed to be spreading and intensifying. Those facts alone can only explain some of the rise in gold.

Well, actually you can argue with facts, but in the case of economic data, they'll only call you a crazy fool.  

If we believe the Commerce Department, the U.S. economy stalled in the first quarter of this year, scantly growing by 0.1%. Maybe it will be revised upward to a more robust 0.2%? You get the picture.

Equipoise is one of those $2 words that's really simple and elegant.  

And it reflects exactly where we are today in the gold market fundamentally. Forces are almost perfectly balanced, watchers are watching. Like the moment when a trapeze artist seems to attain weightlessness and we are all breathless.