Gold

Six weeks ago, the crisis in Ukraine was driving gold higher until cooler heads prevailed. The last few days, Iraq has been the driving force behind a dramatic price in gold, with some analysts predicting a price of $1300 in the near to middle term.

The sweep across northern Iraq by radical Islamists seems to have caught Iraq, the U.S. and its allies off guard and has thrown an element of uncertainty into world affairs.

Gold took advantage of the conditions and zoomed up more than 1%, although it has since fallen back.

The U.S. budget deficit took another bounce down in May, and, of all the leading indicators, that one is crucial.

Why?

Because the whittling away at the federal government's deficit expresses increased tax revenues more than cuts to spending. That means more people are working, more people are buying. More people are active in the economy.

Some influences are temporal.

The president of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard said that the American economy is nearing normal and a return to business-as-usual monetary policy is in the offing. Essentially, he's calling for higher interest rates sooner, rather than later.

Bullard claims that inflation (even by the standards of government statistics), is nearing the Fed-set target.