Back at the beginning of 2022, the dollar index fell to a low at around 99 points. After hitting those lows, the dollar entered a trend with an upward trajectory which concluded at a recent record high just above 114 points on September 28, 2022. The dollar index traded lower from the highs of 114 points correcting for 10 months when on July 18, 2023, it hit an intraday low of 99.14.

Not sprouting from within the U.S. but rather overseas, deep concerns regarding the economic slowdown in China and the eurozone have resulted in a sizable jump in yields of global bonds. Higher yields strengthened the dollar which in turn moved both gold and silver pricing lower. This is because the precious metals are paired against the dollar.

Gold futures had a respectable gain this week opening on Monday at approximately $1944, and today closing at approximately $1966. The weekly trading activity resulted in a gain of approximately $22. But most significant is that this week’s price gain follows the prior week's gains.

Persistent

pər-ˈsi-stənt    ADJECTIVE

1. existing for a long or longer than usual time or continuously: such as

retained beyond the usual period.

ADP released its monthly private sector employment report which revealed that an additional 177,000 jobs were added in August and that personal income was up 5.9% when compared to the previous year. This report comes after the jobs opening report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which showed 8.3 million positions remained unattended.

Gold futures experienced a strong gain of $18.70 today taking the most active December futures contract to $1965.60. Today’s gains are a direct result of the release of data revealing declines in the United States consumer confidence as well as job openings. This in turn led to extreme dollar weakness and a lower yield in U.S. Treasuries.

Recorded on Friday August 25, 2023

Gary Wagner, Editor of The Gold Forecast.com, recaps Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and discusses the next moves for the Fed, dollar, economy, and gold. *

This video was recorded on August 25, 2023,

FOLLOW GARY WAGNER:

“As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.”

The expression calm or quiet before the storm is precisely what market participants witnessed today in gold futures. Gold futures are roughly at the same price they were yesterday after surging $20 higher. Compared to yesterday, the range from high to low in December gold futures contracted by half.