Conclusion of rally becoming crystal clear?

Instead of going over the current wave count, I find it more relevant and noteworthy to cover a few Fibonacci harmonics in BTC which may very well mark the end of the current rally, and if a correction is to follow where that correction could take us to.

The first set of Fibonacci numbers comes from a retracement starting at 2017 record highs at $20,000 down to the bottom in December 2018 at roughly $3150. The second set of Fibonacci levels is derived from an extension from the bottom at $3150.02 2019s high of $14,170 we begin the extension with the most important technical breakout from the descending top occurring on July 27 at approximately $10,000.

The first retracement illustrated in a blue segmented line on our first chart has shown to be relevant as the 61.8% retracement is within $500 of the 2019 yearly high, as well as the beginning matching exquisitely to the final resistance level that BTC had difficulty breaking through and corrected upon touching it twice before the breach. Since breaching that level no true retracement has been evident in the market.

Our Fibonacci extension comparing the entire upside move in 2019 to the movement since breaking out of the long-standing descending top. The base of our extension ($10,000) provided support 11 times in a little over one year as well as resistance six times in the same time frame. And after trading above this key level, it retested it approximately one month later and after successfully holding became the platform from which this rally was launched from. Since this rally officially began there were only two instances of a correction and both being shallow, the deepest of these two found support at the .618 extension which comes in at $16,754.

So what lights can these two Fibonacci studies lend to the rally we are currently in and where it’s will go after the rally concludes? In most circumstances we look for a 1.618 or even a 2.618 extension, however in this case we have surpassed both of those levels. There are interestingly enough very compelling harmonics between these two Fibonacci counts the higher of the two may very well be a level in which we get consolidation or even a correction. The harmonics I am referring to are the 2.23% extension of our first count ($20k – $3K) and the 2.78% extension of our second count ($3k -$14k) these two extensions harmonize at $40,700. This could very well allude to a logical point for the rally to conclude. If this scenario comes into fruition there is one more harmonic foreshadowing where a correction may take us to. The 1.382% extension of our first count in the 1.5% extension of our second count appears at roughly $26,500, this is also the top of one of the two unfilled gaps on futures charts. Should a retracement come into the market this along with the 1.618 extensions of our first count at $30,400 is a highly likely area for the market to find support.

Currently looking at an hourly candlestick chart of BTC we can see how the upper level harmonic has caused a downward bounce in the market since being hit at approximately 2 PM Eastern Standard Time, in that one hour of trading we saw a range of over $4000 (largest hourly range in this entire rally from $4,200) since then the volatility has diminished. This huge spike in volatility could be signaling extreme uncertainty as to the direction of the trend and could be signaling a reversal right where our harmonic appears.

I do not like to predict tops in Bitcoin because I am very bullish on it and the fact it had surpassed most logical extension levels, these concurrent studies are alluding to $40,700 being probable is for a top to form if not at least an area for a shallow corrective wave before returning higher.

Should this forecasted level of $40,700 be the top then there are three areas to look for BTC to trade to. The first would be a very shallow correction to $38,854 (2.618 ext.). Two deeper corrective levels would be $30,406 and the harmonic at $26,500. These would be good entry points if they come back into play over the next few months.