What the ₿? Is this the beginning of the end?

Bitcoin is down substantially today, trading lower in BTC futures by just over 4% ($2,455). This is the second-largest daily decline this week. On Tuesday, BTC fell $4,000 and broke and closed beneath $60,000 for the first time in over two weeks.   The question on traders’ minds right now is, “Is this the beginning of a bear market or just a retracement before returning to rally mode?”

Let's revert to our wave count with the added data we now have to answer that question.

wave count

On Thursday, October 28th, I came out stating that the third wave had concluded. If the symmetry in the wave counts continued as they so elegantly have for nearly two straight years, we will see a $13,000 corrective wave four before entering the final Fifth impulse wave. If we didn’t hit a higher high at $69k last week, we would be looking for support to come in and a bullish reversal at $54,000 which is a very logical point for this to occur. However, with the higher high that came in last week at $69k, our price point for a conclusion of this fourth wave would be $56,000.

The reasoning behind this theory is simply comparing all the corrective waves of the last two impulse cycles (not corrective waves A, B, C) have all been approximately $13,000 in length. This level also corresponds with a 50% extension of this current cycle when compared to Spring’s impulse cycle.

daily BTC

We are now trading about $2,000 above that price point at 2:30 PM EST. If we were to drift below $56k, then $53k would have to hold for this count to be correct. If we break below approximately $53k, then the bull run has likely concluded however, if we hold that level especially if we hold $56K, then our forecast from Oct. 28th utilizing our wave count from Oct. 20th is still in play.

oct wave count

“As long as BTC follows this model and does not break below $54k, then there is every reason to believe that BTC, following this wave four correction, will rally to a new ATH of around $75,000.”

If I was incorrect and we break through the above-mentioned levels, a swift correction down to $44,000 is very possible.