Even if they sound slightly off key when they sing…

Oil headed down early in the day in Europe but then reversed course and started throttling upward.

That reversal came on the wings of a rumor that, since talks in Doha failed this past Sunday, OPEC and non-OPEC producers would try again in May – in Moscow – to arrive at an agreement to freeze production. Iraq was the source of the rumor. Russia said there was no agreement to meet.

As the recent commentaries that reflect the most current thinking of the Federal Reserve sink in to the brains of analysts and investors, fundamental market conditions have suddenly changed.

The Dow and the S&P 500 both rose by more than 0.60% today with the NASDAQ lagging a bit at +0.45% on the session.

We closed the week with a decidedly risk-off day. Worldwide, equities reflect this sentiment best.

The posture began in Asia where China’s economy met GDP expectations. However, neither Hong Kong, nor Shanghai, nor Tokyo was much impressed.

The U.S. consumer price index gained just 0.1% in March as a drop in the cost of food partly offset a reasonably robust rebound in gasoline prices. That gives rise to speculation that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

We have our eye on two areas today: the U.S. and China. It is a tale of two economies. One is obviously more mature than another. One sends out reports that often seem fictional in nature yet helps to drive markets.

As of midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate is up around 4.5% with Brent North Sea Crude following closely behind.

This is because reports are saying there is an alleged deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia in the run up to Doha this weekend. Yet, Iran has already said it will attend the meeting though it will not talk cuts or freezes in production.

Today’s big news is coming from gold and the rest of the precious metals complex.

Gold is up 1.35% and silver is up 3.50%. Platinum higher by 2.25% and palladium is bringing up the rear with a 1.00% gain.

Much of the action is chart based, which will be discussed in our video today and in Market Forecast. Oil is strong; equities are modestly higher.

The oil gods must be crazy. West Texas Intermediate was down, then, up; down and finally up as the weekends, with prices rising 8.00% for the week. The vast majority of that rise came today.