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Gold

 

 

Yesterday we closed the fundamentals portion of our email by discussing how many votes would have to swing in order to change the Fed's direction on QE3. Apparently many precious metals analysts can't figure simple math. Perhaps they are into advanced trig and algebra that mere mortals cannot comprehend.

Just to be clear, a bear has lots of fur, claws, big teeth and is - well - bearish. A bull has horns, powerful shoulders and delivers a heck of a kick. 

The rising dollar is accounting for 2/3rds of the drop in gold today. Why the dollar has risen in the teeth of bad economic news is always a conundrum, but it seems that the equities like weaker retail sales because it could portend deeper cost cutting by corporations. 

Today gold probed the 1360s range and fell back. Some might attribute this to technical factors, which in retrospect tomorrow we may see is so. But the fundamental reason is that there is still the tiny fraction of people who are thinking that the imminent FOMC meeting could yield surprises that could be bad for gold.

Although there are still analysts hand wringing over what will surely be the Fed's decision to stand pat next week on the maintaining of QE3, it is becoming quite clear that the American economy is slowing a bit, although not dangerously. Of course, for many people, the recession that began in 2008 never stopped at all.

One by one, the unbelievers are coming around to the idea that the Fed is not going to taper come next week. 

The Department of Labor reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits declined by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 350,000. Analysts were anticipating U.S. jobless claims would fall by 22,000 to the 340,000 level last week.

Pessimism seems to have infected all markets today. No wonder... it's becoming clear to investors that the fiscal mess in Washington is actually messy and not just an annoying detour. 

Gold - down. Silver - down. Platinum and palladium - down. Base metals down.

Now that the euphoria, controlled as it was for the Democrats, is over and the Republicans still have a splitting headache from being hung over from their "lost weekend" that lasted for almost three weeks, the sober business of figuring out how to realistically cut budgets, deficits and debt is upon Washington once more.