Skip to main content

 

The bulls took command today, as the moment of truth about the direction of gold came to hand after a long, slow holiday in the U.S. Part of the bullish momentum was provided by a faltering equities market, although those recovered somewhat in the late-afternoon.

Two currents were pushing gold prices around today.

The first, and most important for us in the long term is that a raft of data from the U.S. economy came in shaky at best. Consumer sentiment, housing and manufacturing declines sent red flags flying, raising concerns that the world's biggest economy is losing momentum in the final few months of 2014.

Third quarter U.S. GDP was revised upward to show that the economy expanded by 3.9%. Consumer sentiment, however, fell during November. These two data points seems to be contradictory, when in fact, behind the consumer’s thinking lies an unfortunate reality.

After trying to hold the $1200 level, gold has shied back and is hovering right below that psychological mark. The continued strength in equities has helped limit gold’s upside, although silver, due to industrial factors, found a tiny bit of power – well, a spark, is more like it.

The equities markets began bellowing rather than just giving a throaty roar. The stock bull ran right around the world on the news of China’s lowering of interest rates. Shanghai was up most, followed by European exchanges.
 
On the same news, and more promises of European stimulus – or something like stimulus – the U.S. dollar shot up.

Yes, that’s what they’re called…

 

The minutes from the FOMC revealed nothing, changed nothing, except to tell people the economy is getting stronger but not leaving rubber. That’s really no surprise. So hold off on the brass and also – hold off on the mourning shroud. We’re pretty much in the same patter we’ve been in for a few months.

The euro turned bullish today and that drove the U.S. dollar down, thus pushing gold prices up.
The tensions in Ukraine between, on one level the eastern and western parts of the country, and on the other between Russia and the West, are rising.

German economic sentiment index rose by 15.1 to a four-month high of 11.5 this month over October's reading of -3.6.

 Gold rose at the hands of traders and investors early in the day, until they eased up and a stronger dollar weighed on gold prices.

An unusual day in gold trading, without argument.

Our favorite precious metal fell in morning's session, teasing some price-sensitive buyers into the market. Then the winds shifted and gold rose a bit. The light-feeling rebound quickly turned into a gale wind.