We think U.S. stocks have the right idea. Watch out!

A run up near $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude is perhaps a good sign for the future of oil prices as is a Brent North Sea pricing level over the magic $50 level.

Can higher energy prices be one of the keys to kick-starting the equities markets? It seems so. At 3 PM in New York, West Texas Intermediate crude is up 1.8%. Part of the uptick in crude, however, was due to an unexpected drawdown in gasoline inventories, which we believe is merely seasonal as many regions switch from summer to winter blends.

Let’s set the scene. The markets have been unsettled to say the least. The gradual weaning off easy money – heck, the mere thought of weaning – has driven equities, precious metals, the commodities in general, and bond yields absolutely bonkers. One moment, the U.S. is the world’s last, best economic hope; the next moment the U.S.

We are witnessing an imperfect storm, or two storms, or perhaps even three. Let’s try to unwind the interwoven, swirling winds and see if we can make some sense of what is going on, and hopefully derive a sound fundamental analysis of affected markets.

Markets for the most part took a breather from taking their daily beating today. They were led higher by opportunistic buying, short covering, hopeful players betting the slide is over and, when trading opened in New York, reliance on a robust private jobs-creation number by ADP. Oil and gold were the exceptions, heading lower.

Let’s open with the overproduction of crude oil and use that as a factotum for all commodities. The world is not producing too little but too much of almost everything. (The exception might be pharmaceuticals, health services and housing materials.) Thus, we have low or declining prices in most raw materials.

It’s easy to think of today’s scorching-hot meltdown in equities, precious metals, oil and a majority of agricultural commodities, bond yields and the U.S. dollar as cyclical, corrective or somehow coincidental.

It has been by any reckoning a very erratic week in most markets. Equities, precious metals, bond yields, and oil were whipped here and there, up and down after last week’s FOMC vote.

Later this afternoon, Janet Yellen must fulfill her role as “Soother-in-Chief” of the world economy. Can she accomplish that without compromising her role as “Truth-Teller-In-Chief?” It will be a tightrope walk.

Since the middle end of August, lethargy seems to have haunted almost every market you can name. (In general, many industrial and agricultural commodities are down considerably, however.) But let’s look at some major areas to get a feel for what’s happening overall.