The biggest news of this first day of post-holiday, post-summer trading is the renewed strength in equities. All across the world, except Tokyo, stocks looked and acted muscular, and perhaps are bolting out of the late-summer gate for a sharp rise before the historically shaky (and contemplative) month of October.

It’s hard to guess what the Federal Reserve will make of today’s Labor Department employment figures. It’s not too hot, but it’s not too cold. It’s simply kind of lukewarm. However, it did show the unemployment rate dipped to 5.1% and that has to be reckoned with.

A Quiet Mutiny From Stern To Bow… Eyes Open Everyone

The trouble with hedges against inflation is that they need inflation. Sounds obvious, but the message doesn’t always get through to investors and traders.

While there is still plenty of room for crude oil to fall, and many reasons for it to do so, for the moment, it seems to have found its middle-ground pricing level.

Although the sector is still expanding, the pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in August to its weakest in more than two years, according to an industry report. It is going to be very hard to sort out the chicken-and-egg problems such as: What effect China is having? How much of a problem has a much stronger dollar become?

Yes, we know the old advice – Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact. But crude isn’t exactly moving on rumor, and there are surely a lot of facts floating around. Yet, up go prices.

Rumor has it that OPEC and other key oil players are going to get together and reverse their now long-withstanding strategy of low prices. No one is asking the question: “Why now?”

Searching everywhere for a solid answer for crude’s sudden and unexpected rise, we have to settle on casino mentality speculative forces afoot in the marketplace.

Turning the old adage on its head, equities indices across the globe are pulsing with new life and – dare we say? – optimism. Was the deep correctional dive and equally steep return of stocks really necessary?

We need to let something sink in: Investors today sharply reduced the probability of a an interest rate move next month, with trading in federal funds futures on Wednesday implying only a 24% probability they will act, compared with 48% on August 18. 

Of course, we can lay this at the feet of the China meltdown but that would be too glib, and too incomplete.

While China’s Shanghai composite made more noisy news overnight by falling another 7.5%, the real news today is that the Hang Sen (HIS), Hong Kong’s composite, held its ground and even advanced. The HSI is simply a more rational indicator of where Asia as a whole is going. It is staffed by experienced pros and is relatively free of the bureaucratic manipulation that preys upon Shanghai.