Gold

We are reasonably certain that the Fed will stay the course after the FOMC meetings tomorrow and Thursday. It would be a big, big surprise if tapering weren't cut another $10 billion in bond buying per month and a semi-surprise if interest rates were to be raised.

We will be crossing and recrossing the rivers of Ukraine, Russia, Gaza and Israel. To some extent we are at the mercy of the actions that happen on the ground and in the air.

Apparently Tsar Putin is doubling down on his bet in eastern Ukraine; he's on the verge of sending in heavy weapons (artillery) to aid the barbarians who have desecrated the murdered of Malaysia Flight 17 and its mechanical wreckage.

The fighting, too, in Gaza rages on.

Equities took center stage today as the Dow and NASDAQ fell on earnings reports while the benchmark S&P 500 hit a record high for a third straight day. The S&P reacted most positively of the American exchanges to data showing initial jobless claims in the world's largest economy dropped to their lowest in more than eight years.

While certainly selling was limited by world tensions, nonetheless the precious metals are troubled by a number of other issues that are not of a short-term nature.

The first is that physical demand in China is drastically down - 19% below last year's buying levels. There are two ways to read this.

The crucial parts remains from the downed Malaysian Airlines flight have been sent on to more respectable homes for analysis, sorting and, sadly, for burial.

On Thursday we said: "A word of warning, though. One-off events like the downing of the airliner tend to fade quickly from the minds of investors and traders. Be aware of this instant amnesia factor."

While the world is not forgetting the horror of the wanton violence against helpless world citizens, the precious metals markets are not viewing it as a decisive factor.

Some years ago, a friend of ours had a soft bumpy growth thingy on his shoulder and was worried to death. He finally got to a doctor. The worst was going through his mind. In about three seconds, the doctor said, "Don't worry. That's a wen." It's a harmless under-the-skin secretion that goes away usually.   

Apparently the Malaysian Airline plane that crashed in Ukrainian territory was shot down by persons unknown at this point.

This signaled the precious metals markets to go higher. It also prompted U.S. Treasuries to hit higher prices/lower yields. Oil also zoomed.

Gold and silver found some support today via bargain hunting and general reconsideration of Janet Yellen's comments yesterday and today before Congress concerning Fed outlook. However, a number of factors combined to dull the blade and the precious metals have fallen back though still in positive territory for the day.