In our previous episode of The Bitcoin Minute, we predicted the breach of the 200-day moving average as a support level, noting its historical significance as a precursor to substantial rallies in Bitcoin's four-year cycles. This forecast proved accurate when Bitcoin dipped below this average on Thursday, July 4th, and has yet to move back above it after several attemps.

In this episode we review my theory on Bitcoin and its simple 200-day moving average as a predictor of where we are in our current four-year cycle. This indicator is also extremely usefull in identifying cycle tops. This may be the most important technical study to pay close atention to.

In recent trading sessions, alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) have captured the spotlight, outpacing Bitcoin's performance as the leading digital asset remains range-bound. Bitcoin has struggled to break above the crucial 50% retracement level of $62,200, derived from its late February to mid-March rally that saw prices surge from $50,000 to an all-time high of $74,000.

Bitcoin was already trending to the downside, approaching the key physiological level of $60,000 when the trustee assigned with the tax of repaying victims of the infamous 2013 hack of what was at the time the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange. 

We explore several technical studies in order to determine if the current bearish trend is weakening or streghnthening.

Bitcoin's price action over the past couple of months has formed an interesting technical pattern that traders will want to keep a close eye on. After hitting a new all-time high just below $74,000 on March 14th, BTC pulled back to an intraday low of $56,500 on May 1st.

Bitcoin had a modest surge today, regaining the $70,000 mark by rising over 2% or $1,600 as of 7 PM ET. The world's largest cryptocurrency has successfully held its 20-day exponential moving average on a closing basis, despite bears' efforts to drag the price below this important technical indicator.

Bitcoin had its second monthly close above $65,000 ending May 11.28% higher. The month-to-month gain comes after the world’s largest cryptocurrency posted a nearly 15% decline for April 2024. The sizable green monthly candle paints a picture that is not as bullish as one might assume once you take into account the upper and lower shadows or wicks.