Bitcoin’s volatility increased in the month of July due to contradicting forces were added to the price equation of BTC. High profile liquidations bringing strong downside pressure came into the markets, adding large amounts of Bitcoin to the supply side.

In a display of market resilience, Bitcoin concluded the week with a flat performance despite earlier volatility. As of 4:45 PM ET, the leading cryptocurrency traded at $67,550, marking a 2.5% increase ($1,650) for the day. This represents a significant recovery of over $4,000 from Thursday's low, although Bitcoin still registered a marginal 0.9% decline for the week.

After a failed assassination attempt on Donald trump that left one supporter dead occurred on Saturday Bitcoin has experienced a notable rally over the three days that followed. The three daily candles (Saturday, Sunday, Monday) have formed a strong bullish reversal pattern known as “Three White Soldiers.”

In our previous episode of The Bitcoin Minute, we predicted the breach of the 200-day moving average as a support level, noting its historical significance as a precursor to substantial rallies in Bitcoin's four-year cycles. This forecast proved accurate when Bitcoin dipped below this average on Thursday, July 4th, and has yet to move back above it after several attemps.

In this episode we review my theory on Bitcoin and its simple 200-day moving average as a predictor of where we are in our current four-year cycle. This indicator is also extremely usefull in identifying cycle tops. This may be the most important technical study to pay close atention to.

In recent trading sessions, alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) have captured the spotlight, outpacing Bitcoin's performance as the leading digital asset remains range-bound. Bitcoin has struggled to break above the crucial 50% retracement level of $62,200, derived from its late February to mid-March rally that saw prices surge from $50,000 to an all-time high of $74,000.

Bitcoin was already trending to the downside, approaching the key physiological level of $60,000 when the trustee assigned with the tax of repaying victims of the infamous 2013 hack of what was at the time the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange. 

We explore several technical studies in order to determine if the current bearish trend is weakening or streghnthening.